Happy opening night, basketball fans.
As we embark on a new NBA season, the overriding sentiment is the league has never witnessed this much parity. Just listen to Paul Pierce gush about how, unless a team faces the Wizards, Blazers or Pistons, they are in for a final possession game every night. There are no off nights anymore, with ESPN projecting at least 19 teams to finish with records better than .500. The high level of competition is not just good for us, the fans, but for the teams, who’d be forced to “bring it” every night, or else face a play-in situation next April.
Here are five bold predictions ahead of the 2024-25 campaign.
Knicks will win the championship
Anonymous GMs, bettors and analysts have already crowned the Celtics as repeat champions, and rightfully so. The title goes through Boston. And that’s why the Knicks are about to win it all.
If one had to pick out the two best wing defenders in the league to guard Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, the shortlist would include Mikal Bridges, Herb Jones, OG Anunoby and Luguentz Dort. The Knicks have two of those guys, along with another dog in Josh Hart, to wreak all sorts of havoc on Boston’s perimeter-heavy offense that continues to attempt a record number of threes. And in Karl-Anthony Towns — who grew leaps and bounds as a defender in his last two seasons in Minnesota — the Knicks have the perfect matchup for Kristaps Porzingis. Jalen Brunson can rest easy and do his thing on offense, knowing he has the ideal supporting cast to dethrone the champions. The Knicks are set up to emulate their Liberty counterparts, ending their 51-year drought for an NBA title.
Nikola Jokic will win his fourth MVP
Voter fatigue is real; it prevented Michael Jordan and LeBron James from racking up more MVP awards. But neither of those legends were ever in Jokic’s shoes. The Serb remains the only three-time MVP who has never played next to an active All-Star or All-NBA player. Let that sink in. And Jokic will once again benefit from his “one-man band” tag as he leads Denver to a 60-win season and the top seed in a loaded West. ESPN’s BPI projects the Nuggets to win 46.5 games, fewer than the Thunder (51.2) and Mavericks (50.3) and tied with the Timberwolves. And Jokic will be rewarded for making a mockery of those projections.
A guard will win Defensive Player of the Year
In 2022, Marcus Smart became the first guard to win the DPOY award since Gary Payton in 1996. However, with each passing year, voters value perimeter defense more than rim protection. Even analytics nerds have begun to acknowledge that a rim protector’s impact is determined by the versatile guards/wings who can switch onto multiple scorers and shut down driving lanes. It’s why opponent FG% at the rim can be a misleading stat and why some voters are ruing giving Rudy Gobert four DPOY awards. Maybe Gobert is to blame, but a guard needs to be rewarded. The three top choices would be Jalen Suggs, Derrick White and Alex Caruso, all of whom made the All-Defensive teams last year.
The Wemby hype train will slow down
Everyone can see Victor Wembanyama is a once-in-a-generation talent, but the NBA media went overboard in hyping his rookie campaign as the greatest thing since sliced bread. Did nobody watch Magic Johnson win Finals MVP as a 20-year-old? Or did Tim Duncan not help the Spurs go from a 20-62 to a 56-26 team as a rookie? The preseason doesn’t mean anything, but Wembanyama shot 33.5 percent from the field and 11 percent from three in his two games. He seems to be playing further and further away from the rim, which isn’t necessarily the best formula to dominate. As impressive as the Frenchman is, the Spurs will remain a sub-.500 team that barely wins 35 games. And as the losses continue to rack up, somebody, somewhere, will finally acknowledge that it’s too early to crown Wemby.
Pelicans will be a top-four seed
Save for the Celtics, no team in the league has a better Core Seven than the Pelicans, who have Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray and Jose Alvarado. That’s why they’re among the few teams with five or more players in ESPN’s top 100 rankings. They are deep. And they added the perfect stretch big in Daniel Theis to complement the main seven guys’ skillsets. Last season, the Pels were on pace to finish as a top-five seed until a late-season injury to Ingram derailed their momentum. If this team stays healthy, watch out.
Honorable mention:
Draymond Green will be sent home again
The Warriors star showed remorse for punching Jusuf Nurkic last year until he didn’t. It was only a matter of time before he started taking verbal shots at the Suns’ center. By the end of the season, Green was his pompous self again, acting like he wasn’t in the wrong and didn’t need to be disciplined for his non-basketball plays. In the past 24 months, Green has been suspended three times (Nurkic punch, Gobert headlock, and Domantas Sabonis stomp) when he should have been suspended for punching a teammate. Human beings are creatures of habit. Green will slip up again, and it could be his last gaffe for a Warriors franchise that is wearing thin on patience.
